Retainer vs Project vs Hybrid: Why 28% of Agencies Shift in 2026
Forrester predicts a wave of agency resignations in 2026, and `78%` of digital marketing shops now run retainers as their primary model. Here is how the math actually breaks down.
The Delivvo team· May 3, 2026 10 min read
In late 2025, Forrester quietly published one of the bleaker predictions for our industry in years: a meaningful share of brands will "resign their agency" in 2026, citing flat output, rising in-house AI capacity, and pricing structures that no longer match how work gets shipped (Forrester, 2025). Inside that same window, 78% of digital marketing agencies still run a retainer as their primary commercial model, up from 64% in 2023, while a hybrid retainer-plus-project structure is now projected at 28% adoption (RedactAI, 2026).
Two numbers, one tension. Clients are getting harder to keep, and the contract you sign on day one is doing more of the work to keep them than it used to. So this is the question we keep getting from agency owners and senior freelancers on the platform: do we lock in MRR with retainers, chase margin with project work, or run both? Below is the honest version of that answer.
The numbers that frame the shift
A few stats are worth pinning to the wall before we argue about models:
78% of digital marketing agencies use a retainer as their primary pricing model in 2026, up from in 2023 (, 2026).
Hybrid pricing (retainer base plus project add-ons) is projected at 28% adoption among top agencies in 2026 (RedactAI, 2026).
Retainer revenue gives agencies "predictable monthly income" that smooths cash flow and underwrites hiring decisions, per Oracle's NetSuite analysis (NetSuite, 2024).
A healthy agency revenue mix typically blends recurring retainers with one-off project income, rather than concentrating in either bucket (Sidekick Accounting, 2024).
Forrester expects a notable rise in client-side agency resignations in 2026 as in-house and AI-assisted teams absorb work that used to sit on retainer (Forrester, 2025).
Both retainer and project models carry distinct margin and scope risks, with retainers prone to scope creep and projects prone to revenue gaps between contracts (AgencyAnalytics, 2024).
When retainer wins
Retainers earn their keep when the work is genuinely recurring and the client values continuity over deliverable count. Think ongoing SEO, paid media management, content programs, fractional CMO time, community management. The pitch to the client is simple: you get a team that already knows your brand, your stack, and your last six campaigns. The pitch to your CFO is simpler: predictable MRR.
NetSuite's breakdown of agency retainers calls out the obvious upside, which is "predictable monthly income" that lets you forecast headcount and overhead with some confidence (NetSuite, 2024). That predictability is also why valuations on agencies with high recurring revenue tend to look healthier; lenders and acquirers price MRR differently than lumpy project income.
Where retainers quietly bleed margin
The flip side is well documented. AgencyAnalytics' breakdown of pricing models flags scope creep as the dominant retainer failure mode, where the contracted hours stay flat but the actual delivery quietly expands month over month (AgencyAnalytics, 2024). The classic pattern: month one you over-deliver to win trust, month four the client treats that delivery level as the new floor, month nine you are losing money on the account and you cannot tell because nothing on the invoice changed.
The other quiet killer is staleness. If your retainer is structured as "X hours of generic marketing support," you are a commodity, and you will get treated like one the next time procurement runs a review. Forrester's resignation prediction lands hardest on these accounts (Forrester, 2025).
When project-based wins
Project pricing earns its keep when scope is genuinely finite and the value is concentrated at the handoff. Website rebuilds, brand identity, campaign launches, audits, migrations, fixed-scope research engagements. The honest case for project work is margin: you scope tightly, you price to value, and when it ships, you get to walk away clean.
AgencyAnalytics frames it well, noting that project-based pricing lets agencies "command premium rates for specialized work" because the buyer is paying for an outcome on a known timeline rather than open-ended availability (AgencyAnalytics, 2024). That premium is real, and it is part of why pure-project shops often post healthier per-engagement margins than retainer-heavy peers.
The cash flow tax
The downside is structural, and Sidekick Accounting's revenue-mix work makes it plain: if you concentrate too heavily in project income, you import the volatility into your P&L (Sidekick Accounting, 2024). Q1 looks like a record quarter, Q2 falls off a cliff because three projects wrapped and the next two slipped, and your senior people spend half their time selling instead of delivering. Project margin is great until you price in the cost of the gap between projects.
The hybrid playbook
Hybrid is the model gaining ground, and the 28% projection is not an accident (RedactAI, 2026). The structure most agencies are converging on looks like this: a smaller, tightly scoped retainer that covers genuinely recurring work (reporting, account management, always-on optimization, a defined creative output), with project SOWs layered on top for everything that is bounded (a launch, a rebrand, a quarterly campaign, a build).
The commercial logic is honest. The retainer underwrites the relationship and the team. The projects defend your margin and let you charge for outcomes the retainer was never priced for. Sidekick's revenue-mix analysis frames the goal as a deliberate balance, not an accident of which contracts happened to close (Sidekick Accounting, 2024).
What good hybrid actually looks like
A few patterns we see working:
The retainer is small enough that the client does not feel locked in, and large enough that you do not lose money supporting them. In practice that often lands in the $3K-$8K per month range for a mid-market client, with project SOWs layered on top.
Project SOWs are written as if the retainer did not exist. Same scoping discipline, same kickoff, same change-order process. No "we will just slot it into next month's hours."
Reporting is unified. The client sees one view of what is shipping, whether it is retainer work or a project line item. This is where most agencies break, because their PM tool was built for one model or the other.
Renewals are quarterly conversations, not annual surprises. The retainer and the project pipeline get reviewed together.
A note on the deliverable layer
This is the one place we will mention the product. Most pricing-model decisions get made at the SOW stage and then quietly undermined at the delivery stage, because the tooling forces the agency to pick a side. Delivvo's portal is deliberately model-agnostic: the same client view handles a recurring retainer scope and a fixed-scope project handoff without forcing a workflow change. Useful if you are moving to hybrid and do not want to run two systems in parallel.
Common pitfalls
A short list of mistakes we see repeatedly, drawn from the AgencyAnalytics breakdown and our own conversations with operators:
Pricing the retainer on hours, not outcomes
If your retainer line item is "40 hours per month at $200/hour," you have handed the client a stopwatch and lost the strategy conversation. The retainers that survive the 2026 churn cycle Forrester is forecasting are scoped on outcomes (reporting cadence, deliverable count, response time) rather than billable hours (Forrester, 2025).
Letting project work creep into retainer scope
This is the single most common margin leak. A client asks for "just one more thing," it is not in the SOW, nobody wants to send a change order for a small ask, and six weeks later you have delivered a $15K project for free. AgencyAnalytics calls this out explicitly as the dominant retainer failure mode (AgencyAnalytics, 2024). The fix is unsexy: a written change-order process, used every time, no exceptions for "good clients."
Concentration risk on either side
If 60% of your revenue is one retainer, you do not have a business, you have a job with extra steps. The same is true in reverse: if 80% of revenue is project work, your year is a treadmill. Sidekick's mix benchmarks are useful here as a sanity check on how lopsided your book has gotten (Sidekick Accounting, 2024).
Selling hybrid as "retainer plus free extras"
If your sales conversation positions the project layer as a bonus on top of the retainer, you have structurally underpriced the relationship before it starts. Hybrid only works if both sides are priced honestly. The retainer covers what is recurring. The projects cover what is bounded. Neither one subsidizes the other.
Underestimating the operational lift
Running hybrid means running two contract types, two scoping processes, two reporting cadences, and (if you are not careful) two tools. NetSuite's piece on retainer mechanics is a useful reminder of how much administrative discipline a clean retainer requires on its own, before you layer projects on top (NetSuite, 2024).
How to choose for your agency
A short, opinionated checklist:
Audit your last 12 months of revenue and split it into recurring versus project. If you are more than 75% concentrated either way, your next move is rebalancing, not optimizing.
Pick one client segment to pilot a hybrid structure on. Not your whole book. One segment, one quarter, real numbers.
Rewrite your retainer scope on outcomes, not hours, before your next renewal cycle. Hour-based retainers are the ones Forrester's 2026 prediction is coming for (Forrester, 2025).
Build a written change-order process and use it on the next ask, even if it is small. The discipline compounds.
Unify the client-facing view across retainer and project work, so the buyer never has to ask "where do I see the launch project versus the monthly stuff?" If your tooling forces that split, fix the tooling before you scale the model.
The agencies that come out of 2026 in better shape than they went in will not be the ones who picked the "right" model. They will be the ones who priced honestly, scoped tightly, and stopped letting the contract type dictate the relationship.
